India's sugar production for the 2024-25 season is estimated at 26 million tonnes (net) after a 3.5 million tonnes diversion for ethanol, a decline from 32 million tonnes the previous year.
UP's production is estimated at 9.28 million tonnes, down from 10.35 million tonnes, due to red-rot disease and diversion to Gur and Khansari.
Domestic consumption is estimated at 28 million tonnes, comfortably met by opening stock; closing stock expected around 5.2 million tonnes, supporting firm sugar prices.
The government's 1 million tonne export quota and prevailing sugar price of ₹41/kg have helped.
No price revision for juice and B-heavy ethanol impacted the distillery segment; this could undermine the E30 blending program by 2030.
The 80,000-tonne PLA plant is on track for commissioning by Q3 FY27 with a capex of ₹2,850 crore (gross) or ₹1,750 crore (net), expecting ₹2,000 crore annual revenue and ~35% EBITDA margin.
Balrampur's cane availability reduced by only 1.74% compared to UP's average decline of around 2.5%.
Balrampur's recovery is 0.7% better than the UP average.
The company holds around 7.1 lakh tonnes of sugar as of March 31st, expected to be liquidated by November; aiming for sales of around 9.4 to 10 lakh tonnes of sugar annually.
Management expects sugar prices to maintain around ₹41/kg, with a potential marginal uptick depending on government policy.
The company's dependence on CO-0238 variety is down to 6%.
Management Comment: Looking forward, our focus remains on value maximization, sustainability, and discipline capital allocation. Our diversified and future-ready business model positions us to deliver long -term growth and deliver value to our shareholders.